Behavioral New World
November 1, 2022
The Matthew Effect: Success breeds success and vice versa
What is the Matthew Effect? The phrase was first coined by sociologist Robert K. Merton in 1968. It refers to this quote from St. Matthew:
“For unto everyone that hath shall be given, and he shall have abundance: but from him that hath not shall be taken away even that which he hath.”
This Biblical verse refers to worldly riches, or lack thereof. In short, the notion is that wealth attracts wealth, and conversely poverty leads to more poverty. But Merton was interested in this verse’s wider implications, especially for modern professional careers and particularly those of scientists. In his fascinating research on this topic, he found a “misallocation of credit for scientific work.” That is, famous scientists – ones who often have a high degree of “professional visibility” – are frequently given disproportionate credit for co-authored work. Their initial success leads to more success, as measured by the perception of their contribution to shared research.[1]
Why does the Matthew effect exist? I can think of two reasons. First, initial success itself creates visibility, in nearly any field of endeavor. Consider someone who gets the opportunity to star in a Broadway show. This person and their abilities become more visible to casting directors, agents, and others who might then cast that person in a subsequent show.
Second, success as defined by typical modern human society frequently comes with an implicit endorsement. Consider an artist who has just sold a piece to the Museum of Modern Art (MoMA). (That’s huge success for an artist.) Now other museum curators and collectors become less worried about people questioning their decision to buy from that artist. After all, if MoMA has bought it, who could legitimately criticize me for doing the same, right?
What can you do to have initial success? Obvious: work hard, develop expertise, hone any talent you might already have, throw a lot of mud at the wall (so to speak), keep at it, put yourself out there. But that’s not a guarantee--part of success is also luck (see Luck vs. Skill newsletter, August 1, 2022). Consider this scenario: Two equally good actors plan to audition. One is ill that day, the other gets the part. And that leads to other parts, and so forth.
Here’s another (bad) luck story: Ph.D. students in Economics who graduate into a weak job market tend to wind up at less prestigious schools. Their careers—on average—never fully recover vis-à-vis comparable students who graduate into a strong job market.[2] Economists call this “path dependence”—where you start your journey can be quite important. Led Zeppelin sang, “in the long run there's still time to change the road you're on.”[3] That’s not really true though in many situations.
So success leads to more success – so the Bible said, and it still is true. The flip side to the coin: lack of success often leads to a continuing lack of success. Consider this quote:
“Unjust discrimination often gets worse, not better, with time. Money comes to money, and poverty to poverty. Education comes to education, and ignorance to ignorance. Those once victimized by history are likely to be victimized yet again. And those whom history has privileged are more likely to be privileged again.” (emphasis added)[4]
Another author calls it the Da Vinci effect:
“…first coined in a blog post by Jeff Alworth in 2017. The Da Vinci Effect says that the success of an artist begets more success for the artist.”[5]
And lest we think that professors are somehow immune from the Matthew effect, consider that the identity of the author of a research paper determines the probability of it being published. The test: Submit the same paper listing, in some cases, a prestigious author and in other cases, a not-so-well known author. The paper with the prestigious author is reviewed much more favorably, as some revealing research has shown.[6] (For some reason, this phenomenon seemed to be a surprise; I guess professors can be naïve as well as absent-minded.)
Is this behavioral economics? It doesn’t much matter what label we put on it—my goal is to make better decisions and help my readers make better decisions. And the better our understanding of the ways in which the world works, the better our decisions will be.
It is hard to argue with that last sentence, but—confession of a sort—I’m not exactly sure how knowledge of the Matthew effect really helps us. I recall some of my PhD students being frustrated: “That article by Famous Professor X in a top-tier journal isn’t really that good.” In some cases, that was true—and it just didn’t seem fair. My explanation of the Matthew effect didn’t seem to reduce the level of frustration.
I write about the Matthew effect because I find it an interesting phenomenon, one that we observe over time and in many different situations. Perhaps you, the reader, can explain how knowledge of it might lead to better decision making. Leave your thoughts using the Comment button.
One can be discouraged by the Matthew effect if early success has been elusive. But here’s a ray of hope. The phrase “I worked 20 years to be an overnight sensation” (attributed to Eddie Cantor) doesn’t exist for no reason. And we have some control. The Roman philosopher Seneca said, “Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity.”
So be prepared, and then be prepared to benefit from the Matthew effect.
[1] The full article can be found here: http://www.garfield.library.upenn.edu/merton/matthew1.pdf
[2] Oyer, P. (2006). Initial Labor Market Conditions and Long-Term Outcomes for Economists. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 20(3), 143- 160. https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.20.3.143
[3] Stairway to Heaven. But I think “If there's a bustle in your hedgerow, don't be alarmed now” is good advice.
[4] Sapiens: A Brief History of Humankind by Yuval Noah Harari, p. 143
[5] Don’t Trust Your Gut by Seth Stephens-Davidowitz, p. 168.
[6] https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4190976
A very interesting read, John and it also makes a lot of sense to me in line with my own world experience.