Restraint bias

Behavioral New World

November 1, 2024

Restraint bias

Restraint bias is the tendency to overestimate our ability to control impulsive behaviors. These behaviors are often visceral, typically arising from the usual suspects of hunger, fatigue, and stress. They can also result from more “recreational” temptations, such as alcohol, drugs, gambling, sex, and – perhaps most debilitating of all – social media. Even absent these sources, the ability to restrain our behavior can be a mighty task. Recall the case of the cruise buffets described in the October newsletter (link). Try as we might, it often feels as if the environments of our daily modern lives conspire against us.

Restraint bias can be seen as a subset of overconfidence (link), which is one of the most damaging kinds of psychological biases, as decades of convincing research has shown. Common indicators that you are being afflicted by restraint bias are thoughts such as these: “I know I can have just one more drink and then I’ll stop for the night.” “I will stop gambling and head home when I lose $500.”  Or “I’ll just scroll Insta for five more minutes.”  Compounding matters, the tendency to heavily “discount” the future (link) can reduce our restraint in the present moment.

Here’s one person who does not suffer from restraint bias:

“I can resist anything except temptation.”

Oscar Wilde

For those of us who wish to strengthen our mental restraint muscles (Mr. Wilde probably would not fall into that category), we should first observe quite clearly how we actually behave (not just how we think we behave) in the face of temptation. “Of the past 10 gambling binges I’ve been on, how many times did I observe my self-imposed restraints?” Write down your answers and be brutally honest. Once the magnitude of the task at hand is more fully grasped, and it very often is far larger than thought when you see the data points in front of you, the desire to fight this bias increases. Leading to the next point, which is what to do about it.

I agree with author Tim Ferris when he says, “I value self-discipline, but creating systems that make it next to impossible to misbehave is more reliable than self-control.”  By setting up systems (and habits), you don’t have to negotiate with yourself every time a triggering impulse arises. 

Retirement savings. Arguably the easiest way to counter the temptation to postpone saving is to automate it. Have money deducted from your paycheck so it doesn’t pass through your hands, thus reducing the temptation to spend it now.

Gambling.  The excitement associated with gambling (a “hot” emotional state) can lead to bad decision-making. To state the obvious, one can avoid problem gambling by not gambling. An alternative is to have a “gambling budget.” The risk here is that overestimating our self-control can result in a busted budget. Consider taking only cash to the casino—no credit cards, ATM cards, or checkbooks.

The risk of busting a gambling budget might well be greater when the gambling is not in a casino. A recent study (link) looks at the legalization of sports betting, much of which takes place online. The conclusion: “We find a substantial increase in bankruptcy rates, debt collections, debt consolidation loans, and auto loan delinquencies.” Yikes!

Smoking. People sometimes smoke because they believe it relieves stress. But smoking increases anxiety and tension (link), making it more likely that you will continue smoking, a nasty feedback loop.

There are many ways to stop smoking, admittedly a challenge for many people. Here’s one: see if you can identify “triggers” – situations, people, or places -- that increase your urge to smoke. Avoiding them may not always be possible but use your awareness of the triggers to strengthen your mental restraint muscles.

Black Friday. What’s your emotional state when standing in line at 5:00 a.m. on Black Friday just waiting for the store to open? Asking the question answers it, I think -- you might well end up regretting some of your impulsive purchases.

Can you commit to keeping to a shopping list or a budget? If not, take along a trusted friend to serve as a devil’s advocate – “Does your partner really need an earwax camera?”

Finally, two general comments:

First, the topic of money is associated with anxiety for many people, putting them in a mental state that is not conducive to good financial decision-making. As with all biases, being aware of restraint bias is the first step toward making better decisions.

Second, whatever your goal, consider making a public commitment to it. Telling your friends and family will increase your commitment to achieving the goal. There are websites where you can go very public with your commitment, e.g., https://www.stickk.com.

What systems do you use to restrain yourself? Share via the Comment button below.